November 28, 2001—US energy demand is expected to increase from 99 quadrillion Btu in 2000 to 131 quadrillion Btu in 2020, according to a new report by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). This estimation is 4 quadrillion Btu higher than EIA projected last year. The cause for the higher projection, EIA says, is that commercial floorspace is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent between 2000 and 2020, compared to the rate of 1.2 percent projected last year, consistent with recent historical trends. More rapid floorspace growth boosts energy demand.
The report, “Annual Energy Outlook 2002,” also says that nuclear generation will decline at a slower rate compared to last year’s projections, partly due to lower assumed costs for maintaining operation of existing plants.
Other forecast highlights include:
- Average electricity prices are projected to generally decline from 6.9 to 6.3 cents per kilowatt-hour between 2000 and 2015 because of increasing competition in the electricity industry and combined with declining coal prices.
- Projected electricity prices increase to 6.5 cents per kilowatt-hour by 2020 as a result of rising natural gas prices. The projections reflect the delay in plans for industry restructuring that have been recently announced by several states, including the termination of retail competition in California in 2002.
- Generation of electricity from renewable energy sources is expected to increase by 1.3 percent per year through to 2020.
- Coal remains the primary fuel for electricity generation, although its share is projected to decline from 52 percent in 2000 to 46 percent by 2020 as the increasingly competitive electricity industry invests in less capital-intensive natural gas technologies.
- Total natural gas demand is projected to increase nearly 50 percent by 2020, largely for electricity generation.
- Domestic crude oil production is projected to decline slightly by 2020, reaching 5.6 million barrels per day, compared to 5.1 million barrels per day projected last year, resulting from the expectation of additional new fields in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, which begins production in 2010.
- US carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 are expected to be 2 percent higher than in last year’s projection, due to higher energy demand, particularly for transportation, and higher coal-fired electricity generation.
For more information, contact the EIA National Energy Information Center at 202/586-8800.
