As the global economy begins to awaken from a worldwide recession, corporate occupiers should consider how to best position their portfolio to take advantage of emerging, favorable real estate market conditions. We can expect over the next 18-24 months high vacancy rates and landlords in distress both resulting in lower rental rates and opportunities to purchase buildings at deep discounts.
Real estate markets are inherently cyclical and typically lag the general economy. As we enter a recession, firms tend to reduce their commitment to real estate. As the recession deepens, they respond by laying off an increasing number of staff and push excess space into the sublease market — driving a spike in vacancy rates and rent compression. Frequently, because of project lead times, developers are, of course, responding to previous demand by delivering new assets to a weakening market, thereby further increasing supply. Rents typically don’t begin to recover until employment rate increases are sustained over some period of time, resulting in positive absorption and declining vacancy rates as the sublease inventory clears.
Occupancy Cost Reduction Program — Creative Portfolio Transaction Structures
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Strategy & Application |
Description |
Criteria / Determinants |
Financial Impacts |
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1) Acquire Leased Assets |
Occupiers acquires leased property as a means to reduce GAAP occupancy cost |
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2) Acquire Leased Assets & Sell |
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3A) Short Term Sale Leaseback |
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3B) Partial Sale Leaseback |
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4) Move from owned to leased property(s) |
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5A) Asset Swaps |
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5B) Asset Swaps — 1031 Exchange |
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6) Portfolio Sale |
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7) Trade lease rights for rent reductions or ability to relinquish space |
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8) Surplus Property Program |
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9) Restructure Old (or Get New) Econ. Incentives for Staying |
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10) Subsidiary Sale |
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11) Sublease to Landlord |
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13) Barter |
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What makes this cycle unique is the impact of the credit markets. As investors searched for yield, asset allocations to alternative assets including real estate increased significantly — capital poured in to both equity and debt. In order to maximize equity returns in a climate of ever-increasing acquisition prices, financing structures became more complex, often including first and second mortgages along with tranches of mezzanine debt and preferred equity. Much of the debt was ultimately securitized as collateralized mortgage-backed securities, leaving only the loan servicers to know who owned what piece of the bond obligations.
Because of the credit crisis, return targets have increased and debt underwriting has tightened, causing commercial real estate values to decrease by 30-40 percent (this is before the impact of coming rent declines and increasing vacancies). The new values are frequently eroded through the equity and mezzanine tranches and, in some instances, are less than the value of the first mortgages. This phenomenon is not just happening with securitized debt, but also with debt originated by the balance sheet lenders — banks and insurance companies — which when combined with the housing credit crises suggests a protracted recovery for these lenders. Adding more fuel to the fire is the fact that many loans are still technically performing (i.e. borrowers are making payments), but have maturities that come due over the next 18-36 months. Given that the equity for most borrowers has been wiped out and they are unlikely to be able to replace the entire loan amount, they face a shortfall that will either result in a renegotiation of the note or some type of foreclosure or deed-in-lieu settlement.
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Operating Costs: A Landlord and Tenant Perspective
So with all this distress in the commercial real estate market over the next 18-24 months, how can corporate occupiers take advantage of these conditions? There are a number of ways tenants can capitalize on current market economics. To be sure, traditional transaction strategies — lease buyouts, subleasing, selling surplus owned assets — can still work, but other creative strategies are likely required to really take advantage of the current market conditions. It doesn’t matter whether you have surplus space to shed, are treading water, or growing — now is the time to act.
The adjacent table summarizes 12 creative transaction strategies that can help your firm reduce its occupancy costs and take advantage of emerging favorable market conditions for occupiers/tenants. These strategies focus on reducing GAAP costs for core assets, and also include recapitalization and re-trade structures that can help provide exit strategies for otherwise stranded assets. Most take advantage of the current market conditions. Often these are complex transactions requiring capital markets, structured finance, accounting, and local leasing market expertise. Be cautious and seek the advice of experts, but don’t be afraid to test these concepts — they are creative strategies that offer real opportunities for reducing your occupancy costs.
About the Authors
Sven Pole is a Senior Managing Director with CBRE’s Global Corporate Services Group. He has 27 years of experience advising global company’s on their real estate portfolio strategies and complex transactions.
Alex Somerville is Vice President of CBRE’s Tenant Advisory Practice. He specializes in helping firms underwrite complex transactions by bringing an expertise in capital markets and transaction strategies that optimize financial statement impacts for clients.