January 23, 2004—DBM, a global human resources consulting firm, and part of The Thomson Corporation recently released the results of its Workforce Predictions Survey for 2004. The findings reveal how organizations are responding to workforce trends in the changing economy and the trends expected for 2004.
“The good news is that the job market is finally opening up in response to improving economic conditions,” said Tom Silveri, President, DBM. “Job seekers will still need to deal with a competitive job market since increased hiring will most likely prove a slow and steady process. The key is to aggressively follow up with job leads in the first quarter as companies typically start to open up opportunities after the holidays, even in a conservative market.”
The survey of HR professionals was conducted from December 2003 through January 2004. Hiring Plans Greatly Increased from 2003: Approximately 51 percent of HR professionals surveyed plan to moderately to greatly boost hiring activity in 2004—a 35 percent increase from last year’s survey. DBM consultants expect job search time to remain in the four to six month range, even as the job market gradually improves. “Although we see more job seekers securing employment in the one to three month range, the average remains four to six months, in part due to conservative hiring practices,” said Silveri. “It’s not uncommon for a job seeker to return six or seven times for interviews before a hiring decision is made—a trend that is not likely to change in the first half of 2004.”
Consistent Organizational Change: Although those polled saw a decrease in the amount of layoffs that their companies experienced in 2003 (nearly 60 percent experienced a layoff compared to 71 percent in 2002), organizational changes are still planned for 2004. Fifty-two percent of those surveyed (the same percentage as last year) noted their companies were planning an organizational change of some sort this year. “As the economy improves, companies will continue to re-evaluate and reorganize their workforces to ensure alignment with the changing business climate,” added Silveri.
Investments in Leadership Development Expected: Although conservative spending will continue in 2004, organizations recognize the need for professional development programs for retained employees. In fact, 67 percent of HR professionals surveyed expect their companies to moderately to aggressively invest in leadership development programs this year. “Organizations need to consider how to retain employees as the economy improves,” said Silveri. “Corporate investments in professional and leadership development programs will go a long way when workers are weighing future employment options.”
Additional workforce predictions for 2004 include:
- Continuation and possible increase in “offshoring” of white-collar jobs to Asian markets in an effort to meet budget constraints
- Exodus of employees to new job opportunities in an improving job market
- Emphasis on succession planning as the growing aging worker population considers retirement and consulting opportunities
- Concentration of hiring in potentially “hot” industries such as: healthcare, pharmaceuticals, finance, and professional services
For more information, contact DBM.
