The US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its “Short-Term Energy Outlook” February 10 covering gasoline, natural gas, electricity, and coal consumption and prices.
EIA raised its forecast for average US gasoline prices in 2009 to $1.95 per gallon, up from $1.87 in January, while average diesel price projections for 2009 remained fairly steady at $2.28 per gallon, according to a synopsis from the DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). EERE notes that gasoline prices have been slowly climbing over the last six weeks after hitting their lowest monthly average since February 2004 at $1.69 in December.
According to the Outlook, natural gas consumption and prices continued to fall with the economic downturn, despite January’s cold weather throughout much of the United States. Prices are expected to average $5.01 per thousand cubic feet in 2009, down 86 cents from what the agency was forecasting only one month ago—and down significantly from 2008’s average of $9.13.
US total electricity consumption is projected to decline by 0.8 percent in 2009, including an expected decline of nearly 5 percent in industrial sector electricity sales. Total electricity consumption is expected to grow by 1.3 percent in 2010 as economic recovery boosts sales of electricity to the residential and commercial sectors. Industrial electricity prices are expected to increase by just 1 percent in 2009 after having grown by 10 percent last year.
Retail and other industrial sector coal consumption is estimated to have declined by 2.2 percent in 2008 and is expected to decline by an additional 13.8 percent in 2009. Consumption growth for this sector is projected to be 3.5 percent in 2010. Despite record increases in spot prices for 2008, primarily due to transportation costs, the EIA expects declines in electricity demand and lower transportation costs to help the delivered coal price remain flat in 2009.
