Worldwide energy consumption is projected to grow by 59 percent over the next two decades, according to International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001), released in March by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). One-half of the projected growth is expected to occur in the developing nations of Asia (including China, India, and South Korea) and in Central and South America, where strong economic growth spurs robust demand for energy over the forecast period.
Developments that influenced the projections included persistently high world oil prices, stronger than anticipated economic recovery in Southeast Asia, and robust economic growth in the former Soviet Union.
Report highlights include:
- Natural gas remains the fastest growing component of primary world energy consumption.
- Oil currently provides a larger share of world energy consumption (40 percent) than any other energy source and is expected to remain in that position throughout the forecast period.
- Worldwide consumption of electricity generated from nuclear power is expected to increase from 2,396 billion kilowatt-hours in 1999 to 2,636 billion kilowatt-hours in 2015 before declining to 2,582 billion-kilowatt hours at the end of the forecast period. Most of the growth in nuclear capacity in the reference case is expected to occur in the developing world (particularly developing Asia), where consumption of electricity from nuclear power is projected to increase by 4.9 percent per year between 1999 and 2020.
- Renewable energy use is expected to increase by 53 percent between 1999 and 2020, but its current 9-percent share of total energy consumption is projected to drop to 8 percent by 2020.
- Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow from 5.8 billion metric tons carbon equivalent in 1990 to 7.8 billion metric tons in 2010 and 9.8 billion metric tons by 2020. Much of the increase in carbon emissions is expected to occur in the developing world, where emerging economies are expected to produce the largest increases in energy consumption.
For more information, download the PDF version of International Energy Outlook 2001 or obtain a printed copy from the US Government Printing Office, 202/512-1800.
