December 3, 2008—In the absence of new government policies, global energy demand will increase 45% by 2030, and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase by the same amount, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as analyzed by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE).
That increase, to 41 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, would reportedly place the world on track for a catastrophic global temperature increase of nearly 11F by the end of this century. Meeting that energy demand would also require a 27% increase in oil production, while the demand for electricity would discourage utilities from retiring old, inefficient power plants, adds the IEA.
These current projections of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 are at least a more rosy projection that last year’s report, because the global economic slowdown has dampened energy demand, there are greater prospects for high energy prices in the future, and some new policy initiatives could help stem the global growth in energy demand. The projections call for renewable energy to be the fastest-growing source of energy in the future, but says it is still not enough to halt the growth in greenhouse gas emissions, says the IEA.
If instead the world commits to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at the equivalent of 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide—the limit needed to hold the temperature rise to 3.6F—it will require the concerted effort of countries throughout the world, reports the IEA. In the absence of action from developing countries, the goal could reportedly not be met, even if all industrialized countries cut their emissions to zero.
The IEA says there is a pathway to achieving that goal, through a rapid expansion of low-carbon energy sources to supply 36% of the world’s energy by 2030. The effort would require a global energy investment of $9.3 trillion, but it will also yield energy efficiency savings of about $5.8 trillion. The result would be a sharp decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2020, according to the IEA, dropping to less than 26 gigatons per year by 2030, or about 7% lower than the global emissions were in 2006.
