November 30, 2007—Energy developments in China and India are transforming the global energy system as a result of the sheer size of the countries, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2007 warns that global energy consumption could increase “well over 50%” by 2030. Energy use in China and India could double by 2030 as they improve their citizens’ quality of life, providing nearly half the world’s growth in energy consumption.
If that happened, global carbon dioxide emissions from energy use would increase by 57%. The world’s oil production would also be increasingly concentrated in the Middle East, and the IEA notes that “it is very uncertain” whether supplies would keep up with demand.
IEA says that if governments implement policies they are considering today, global energy-related CO2 emissions would level off in the 2020s, although they would still end up at about 25% above current levels by 2030.
Emissions growth could be curbed through a combination of aggressive energy efficiency measures, greater use of renewable and nuclear energy sources, and widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, says the report. Energy savings would be particularly large in China and India, adds IEA.
But to make this a reality would require “exceptionally quick and vigorous policy action by all countries, and unprecedented technological advances,” says IEA. The report stresses that the next 10 years will be crucial for shifting the world’s energy supply toward a cleaner, more efficient, and more secure path.
World Energy Outlook 2007 is available online from IEA.
