October 25, 2006—The adequacy of North America’s electricity system will decline unless changes are made soon, Rick Sergel, president and CEO of the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) announced, in conjunction with the release of NERC’s first reliability assessment since being named the Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) for the United States.
NERC is working to gain recognition as the ERO in the various jurisdictions in Canada by the end of the year.
NERC’s 2006 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Report analyzes the adequacy of electricity supply and transmission reliability in North America through 2015, and calls for actions to improve bulk power system reliability.
Demand for electricity is expected to increase over the next ten years by 19 percent in the US, but confirmed power capacity will increase by only 6 percent, says the report Capacity margins are projected to drop below minimum target levels in Texas, New England, the Mid-Atlantic area, the Midwest, and the Rocky Mountain area, in the next two to three years, with other portions of the Northeastern US, Southwest, and Western US falling below minimum target levels later in the period. In Canada, projected margins are adequate except in Western Canada, where additional resources will be needed as soon as 2008.
The adequacy of electricity supplies depends, in part, on the reliability of fuel supply and delivery systems, not just the installed capacity of generators, according to Sergel. Gas-fired generating capacity additions are projected to account for almost half of the resource additions over the 20062015 period, with coal accounting for the other half. Strengthening coal and gas delivery infrastructures, and firming up gas supply and delivery contracts, will reduce the potential for shortages in electricity due to fuel disruptions.
For more information, see the NERC Web site.
