January 14, 2002—Two new energy forecasts—one published by the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the other published by The Royal Dutch/Shell Group—project that energy efficiency and renewables will be major factors shaping future energy use in the United States.
According to EIA’s Annual Outlook 2002, US energy demand is expected to increase 32 percent from 2000 to 2020, but the forecast could change with faster or slower penetration of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. The EIA reference case projects a steady decline of 1.5 percent per year in energy used per dollar of gross domestic product through 2020 due to energy efficiency technologies. But a more rapid development and market penetration of these technologies could lower the US energy demand in 2020 by 6 percent, EIA says.
The EIA report also examined the effect of expanding the production tax credit for wind power and biomass facilities to include all biomass and landfill gas facilities. That change would boost the production of electricity from renewable energy by nearly 50 percent by 2020.
The Royal Dutch/Shell Group report, “Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities,” look at the energy picture through 2050. It examines two possible scenarios for future energy development—one in which there is an evolutionary progression to new energy sources, and one in which society moves toward a hydrogen economy. Both scenarios project a significant growth in renewable energy by 2050.
Based on a report from the Energy Department’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Network.
